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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to NE 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant to NE 19 for 8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model