Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 87

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 17-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to MIA 49, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-C.Wilson to NE 41 for 10 yards (18-M.Slater). NE-8-J.Bentley was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.93 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 87, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model