Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 7

(13:12) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NE 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant to NE 10 for 2 yards (52-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model