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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 4-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to NE 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.91 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP