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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 33

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model