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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 45

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 17-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Addington, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.06 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model