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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to HOU 1, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-6-C.Claybrooks. Houston challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model