Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 67

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(7:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 23 for 7 yards (49-J.Hansen, 29-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.18 EP
48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model