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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 1-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.87 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP