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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 53

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 41 for 12 yards (34-G.Junior) [41-J.Allen].

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.06 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP