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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 35

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 10-R.Patterson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model