Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 95

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

(8:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to JAX 42, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at HOU 40 for 18 yards (53-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO -3.75 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.94 EP
70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 95, worth -5.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model