4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 55

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 6-J.Driskel up the middle to HOU 45 for no gain (2-R.Jenkins, 31-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.01 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model