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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 42

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 32 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.55 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP