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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 45
Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6
What Actually Happened
(13:09) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to KC 43 for 2 yards (95-C.Jones).
The Three Options
GO
+1.06 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.81 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
KICK
-0.88 EP
- 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 55% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT
-0.49 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
