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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to DEN 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 9-K.Hinton to DEN 21 for 11 yards (54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.72 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP