4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 59

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to KC 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-K.Toney.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model