Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 82

Denver Broncos 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(3:05) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to KC 28, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-K.Toney pushed ob at KC 35 for 7 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model