Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 57

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(11:27) 17-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.11 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model