Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 10

(14:09) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DEN 24, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 9-K.Hinton.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model