Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 59

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to KC 6, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-K.Toney to KC 13 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton). FUMBLES (49-A.Singleton), RECOVERED by DEN-82-E.Saubert at KC 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.65 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model