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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 19
Atlanta Falcons 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3
What Actually Happened
(14:21) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to ARI 5 for 14 yards (34-J.Thompson).
The Three Options
GO
+3.13 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.92 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.43 EP
KICK
+2.04 EP
- 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
- 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT
+0.20 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
