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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 20

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model