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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.38 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model