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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 44

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-C.Clement left guard to ATL 44 for no gain (26-I.Oliver; 97-G.Jarrett).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model