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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model