Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to ARI 19, Center-48-L.McCullough. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 33 for 14 yards (44-T.Andersen; 40-K.Smith). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 33.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.50 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model