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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.21 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model