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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 62 yards to ARI 1, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model