Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 88

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to SF 36, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-R.McCloud to SF 35 for -1 yards (35-P.Butler). PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.66 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model