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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
San Francisco 49ers
4th & 1 at the 15
San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(8:47) 23-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at WAS 15 for no gain (51-D.Mayo).
The Three Options
GO
+3.52 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.33 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP
KICK
+2.09 EP
- 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
- 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT
+0.15 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
