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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 17

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.95 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP