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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 85

Washington Commanders 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to SF 43, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-34-C.Holmes.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.59 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model