Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 84

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:34) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to SF 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-R.McCloud ran ob at SF 35 for 13 yards (41-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.74 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 84, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model