Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 50

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(3:10) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to SF 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.63 EP

KICK -1.15 EP

33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
67% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model