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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right guard to SF 1 for no gain (54-F.Warner).

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model