4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(:37) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model