4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model