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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:45) (Punt formation) 14-A.Lee pass short right to 57-K.Grugier-Hill to ARI 49 for 4 yards (30-D.Delaney).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.96 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model