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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to ARI 39, Center-97-Z.Triner. 15-P.Cooper pushed ob at TB 33 for 28 yards (25-G.Bernard).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.66 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP