4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 21

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model