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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 14-A.Lee punts 45 yards to TB 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.23 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model