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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to ARI 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 15-P.Cooper ran ob at ARI 30 for 13 yards (25-G.Bernard).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP