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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 20, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP