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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 3-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model