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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 22

Detroit Lions 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:54) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams left guard to CAR 20 for 2 yards (55-C.Littleton, 93-B.Roy).

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model