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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to DET 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.23 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model