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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 16

Detroit Lions 20 – Carolina Panthers 37

What Actually Happened

(:40) 17-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model