4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 18

Carolina Panthers 34 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.07 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model