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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 7

Detroit Lions 7 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(3:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 84-S.Zylstra for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.83 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model